NFL Picks - Week 6

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It's that time of the week again. After a pretty decent week of picking games (off of the blog of course), I'm back here to deliver my picks for this week. There are a few choice games to watch this week including a rematch of last year's epic NFC Championship Game. I am sure that San Francisco has had this once penciled in for a while, as have their fans, and much of the NFL fanbase too. With all of that said and prefaced, here is how I think Week 6 of the NFL will occur. 

Thursday

vs.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans

8:20 PM ET | NFL Network

Commentators: Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock

This at one time was one of the most underrated rivalries in the AFC. Now, with Tennessee looking positively awful, and Pittsburgh looking shaky at times, I do wonder how this game is goign to turn out. Pittsburgh could totally blow them out, or they could play down to their competition and this game could be close. I'll look and see if Tennessee can generate any sort of pass rush against a notoriously weak Steelers offensive line. The Titans are 28th in the NFL in sacks with just seven, and they are allowing a league-worst 36.2 PPG. It's sad, because there actually is some talent on this team, but the coaching so far has been absolutely inept. I will go with Pittsburgh in this game, and in ugly fashion. In fact, this is my lock of the week. 

Pittsburgh 27 Tennessee 7

Sunday

vs.

Oakland Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons

1:00 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf

For some reason this game confuses me. The Falcons should win comfortably against a Raiders team that has been absolutely dreadful against the pass and might have the worst secondary in the NFL. The fact is though, Oakland is getting healthy and with their sped, it's almost as if they are a dome team that plays outside. I have looked at this game as a trap game for the Atlanta Falcons for much fo the season, but at the same time there is a conviction inside of me to pick the Falcons because they are a better team. I'll do that, and it will be close not only because of those reasons, but because Atlanta has played their last two inferior opponents close too. It wouldn't shock me at all really if Oakland won this game and handed the Dirty Birds their first loss of the 2012 NFL season.

Oakland 21 Atlanta 27

vs.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots

Going into the season, I figured that one of the only possibilities for the Browns to get a victory was this game against the Bengals. Since that point, Cleveland has crapped the bed and have an 0-5 record, but at the same time, they have still managed to put up reasonable fights against their opponents. The Bengals have been surprisingly underwhelming and had a dud of a game last week against Miami, who went into Cincinnati and won. With all of that said I think Cleveland is going to take another gashing on the run game, but I'm going to go with an upset. Cleveland edges out Cincinnati and splits the Battle for Ohio, and Trent Richardson is the difference maker.

Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 21

vs.

St. Louis Rams vs. Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM ET | FOX
Commentators: Chris Myers, Tim Ryan

Being in the St. Louis area for once may not be so bad after all. I will be able to watch this game and focus in on two of the best pass rushers the league has to offer. Cameron Wake and Chris Long have been awesome thus far, with a combined 75 pressures (including a combined 8.5 sacks). Wake himself has 41 pressures (including his 5.5 sacks) and has been one of the best defensive players in the NFL this year. As I noted in the Four Downs column, I think whichever of these two gets the most out of rushing the passer will help their team to victory. I do think though that the Rams are a bit more well rounded on defense and they'll have Robert Quinn to account for as well. I think both of these QB's are in for a long day, but I see Sam Bradford making more plays than Ryan Tannehill to win the game. Give me St. Louis to go 4-2 to start off the season. Who'dathunkit?

St. Louis 16 Miami 10

vs.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

1:00 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

As a friend of mine keeps saying, "I'm glad [the Bears] faced the Colts in Week 1 and not last week." And to be honest, that's true. This team is making steadier improvements than I personally figured that they would, and it all capped off last week with their miraculous, 'CHUCKSTRONG' victory against the Green Bay Packers. Now this week, they will be taking on a Jets team that showed a lot more life and energy than I personally expected them to against Houston on Monday night. Even with that said, I think at this point the Colts are a better team than the Jets, which I personally didn't see coming at all. It's not even just their offense either; their defense has stepped up in a big, big way, maybe not int he PPG area but YPG they're doing quite well. Give me the Colts in a 'road upset.' 

Indianapolis 21 New York 14 

vs.

Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles

1:00 PM ET | FOX

Commentators: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa

I don't usually believe in hyperbole, but the implications of this game, as it stands, might be pretty important. The Detroit Lions have strongly disappointed (or played up to par with how you think they would, depending on your thoughts on the team) and stand now at 1-3 and the schedule isn't exactly getting any easier. The Philadelphia Eagles on the other hand have easily become one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and have one of the strangest 3-2 teams in recent memory. They stand above .500, despite the fact that they have a negative turnover differential (the worst in the NFC, actually). In a back-against-wall situation, I'll surprisingly take Detroit on the road, because as bad as they have been, I think that off of a bye week they will come out strong. Calvin will have a huge game.

Detroit 24 Philadelphia 20

vs.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1:00 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Marv Albert, Rich Gannon

This game is already blacked out in Tampa Bay, and Brady Quinn will be starting for the Kansas City Chiefs. If that isn't unattractive enough for you then maybe this will be: Tampa Bay is giving up 423 YPG, and 22.8 PPG. Kansas City on the other hand is 10th in YPG given up, but is giving up a staggering 29 PPG. At least one of the best running backs in the NFL, Jamaal Charles, will be in action. He though may be up against his toughest test because Tampa has given up an average of just 73.8 rushing YPG this year. I think that this is personally the ugliest matchup of the entire weekend, and I think Tampa comes out this smokeshow with a victory that will look undeserved.

Kansas City 13 Tampa Bay 14

vs.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens

1:00 PM ET | FOX

Commentators: Sam Rosen, Brian Billick

We go from what is arguably the worst matchup of the 1:00 PM slate to what I think will be the best matchup of the 1:00 PM slate - at least by team association. The last time these two teams met up, Baltimore rumbled into the final game in Texas Stadium and stomped on Dallas in memorable fashion. This time, there are some differences between the teams. The Cowboys have looked considerably weaker by the week, but it's not as if Baltimore has been world beaters. They have just one loss so far this season, yes, but their defense is probably at the weakest that it has been in years, perhaps far over a decade. I'm sensing a big homefield advantage though for the Ravens, and I definitely think they will rise up to a victory after a less-than-impressive performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike their last showing though, I expect a lot of fight from Dallas and I don't think they go down easily.

Dallas 16 Baltimore 21 

vs.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

4:05 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Baltimore-Dallas might be the best early game, and the 49ers-Giants game might be the best late game, but to me, Seahawks-Patriots is the most intriguing game of all. Seattle's defense has done a terrific job this year in shutting down some of the best quarterbacks in the league, i.e. Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo. Tom Brady, arguably, will be the second best quarterback that they face this year and it most certainly helps that Seattle is at home, where their crowd can get louder than just about any team's fans. The Patriots definitely have a potent offense that is hitting their stride at the moment, and certainly Tom Brady will find ways to beat the tough secondary that Seattle has. I do wonder though if Seattle's pass rush will play a much larger factor. With that said, this is my upset pick of the week as I think Seattle squeaks by New England.

New England 14 Seattle 17

vs.

Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals

4:05 PM ET | CBS

Commentators: Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker

What can I make of this game? I'm not particularly sure, because it's pretty hard to decide. It's not even just because these teams are evenly matched. It's actually because I'm not particularly sure what the heck to expect of these two teams. Certainly Arizona has looked good this season but they had a stinker of a game in the Edward Jones Dome last Thursday. While 100 million dollar man Mario Williams hasn't looked great this season, he'll be facing a disgustingly bad Arizona offensive line that let up nine sacks on Kevin Kolb to the Rams. Frankly, this is a pick'em to me and I'm going to go with the home team here, if only just for that. I do think that Larry Fitzgerald has a bigger day than he did against St. Louis, and Arizona has a bounce-back performance. Buffalo though, definitely has a chance to pick up a win on the road to go back to .500.

Bufalo 13 Arizona 21

vs.

New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers

4:25 PM ET | FOX

Commentators: Thom Brennamen, Troy Aikman

Seems like we've been down this road before. Conference Championship rematch? Check. One team looking for vengeance after a tough loss, just one game away from the Super Bowl? Check. Raucous home crowd rallying on the loser? Check. One team looking pretty strong, if not stronger than most of the rest? Well, that one was different from the AFC Championship rematch, but certainly the 49ers have looked stronger than the Giants this season. It might have been the Buffalo Bills, but any team that can rack up 600+ yards of offense looks like a total juggernaut to me. The 49ers won't get 600 yards of offense against the Giants, no, but I think the cards are really in place here for the 49ers to get some retribution for the tough, tough loss back in January. So I see a San Francisco victory here, and look for the 49ers defense to make a statement early. I think Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks come away with a combined four sacks of Eli Manning, and the front seven as a whole to dominate the feeble Giants offensive line.

New York 17 San Francisco 28

vs.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins

4:25 PM ET | FOX

Commentators: Dick Stockton, John Lynch

Even if the Redskins are 2-3, in my opinion they have already exceeded expectations. RGIII has been a superb rookie quarterback and despite the loss of pass rusher Brian Orakpo, second-year OLB Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue University is stupendous. He's made plays everywhere and is quickly becoming one of my favorite young defensive players. On the flip side, the Vikings also have exceeded a lot of expectations and are one of the early surprise teams in the NFL. Christian Ponder is doing just fine, Adrian Peterson is playing well coming off the torn ACL he suffered, ironically to the Redskins, last January, and Percy Harvin is turning into one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. This is going to be a fun matchup to watch in my opinion that I expect to go to the final horn, and I like the Vikings to sneak away with a late victory from FedEx Field. 

Minnesota 23 Washington 20

vs.

Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans

8:20 PM ET | NBC

Commentators: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

My Super Bowl preview comes to us in primetime, and it is looking like a very important game for the Green Bay Packers. They're 2-3 at this point, and with the Vikings approaching the 5-1 mark, and with the Bears near that point as well, the Packers are going to have to hit the .500 mark. I'm sure the Packers will definitely have a lot of people within the team getting themselves up for this game, and Dom Capers is going to need to construe one hell of a gameplan to try and stop this potent offense. One weakness that I can see being exploited in Houston's defense is the middle of the field now that Brian Cushing is out for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers having the middle of the field open with his receivers might be positively lethal. Still though from top to bottom, I do like Houston and unfortunately for Green Bay, I see the Texans winning.

Green Bay 20 Houston 24