Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 4


It hasn't been so great for me picking NFL games. The last two weeks I have been a combined 16-16, but the entertainment value for these games has been, for the most part, off the charts. Luckily for our sake, the National Football League will be graced with the presence of the legitimate referees starting this evening in Cleveland. After the debacle on Monday night, they in my opinion, had no other choice. Nonetheless, there is a pretty solid slate of games this week and the Sunday and Monday night games look like they are going to be very good. The day games have some gems but they are kind of weak. With that said here's how I see Week 4 shaking out in the NFL. Chances are, I'll be hit or miss.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns - Thursday, 8:20 PM ET, NFL Network
The Ravens are coming off of a big, emotional victory on Sunday night against the New England Patriots. Torrey Smith played fantastically, given the circumstances at hand, and luckily they were on the right side of a game-ending field goal. They'll travel to Cleveland on a short week to take on the divisional rival Browns. Sadly for Cleveland, they have really not shown any sort of signs of improvement. Their best game played was against Cincinnati whose defense has done a complete 180 this year. The Ravens have won their last eight games against the Browns, and I do not see a way that that streak doesn't continue. 
Result: Baltimore 24 Cleveland 10



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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX
Okay, so I don't think anybody had the Vikings beating the 49ers. But I'm not sure anybody thought that the Lions would lose to Tennessee, especially in the fashion that they did. 44 points given up to an offense that isn't exactly vaunted is frightening. Their defense was a major concern for me going into the season and I thought that they took a step back. Looks like they have. Needless to say though the offense has looked pretty good, and luckily, Matt Stafford returned to practice today. If he plays I think he helps their cause a lot, but I've got a sneaky suspicion that the Vikings might pull this out late. Their defense seems to be much improved and Christian Ponder might be progressing a lot faster than people thought. Methinks the Vikings late.
Result: Minnesota 23 Detroit 19

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Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX
Well, with Seattle at 2-1, and the Rams being a hard-luck 1-2 this might have some big, and early ramifications on the NFC West race. Both of these defenses have been pretty solid, namely Seattle who has only given up 272.3 YPG and 13 PPG, 4th and 1st respectively. Their offense has not played up to par, and might find some trouble doing that this week also. Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan are looking like a very strong CB duo. The Rams will need to do their best to protect Sam Bradford, because remember, Seattle had eight sacks on Aaron Rodgers this past Monday night. I think this is a hard fought battle but I like the away team coming away with a W here, and hopefully without controversy shrouding it because this defense is legit. 
Result: Seattle 16 St. Louis 10


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San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX
Let's not let last week fool everyone: the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL. One loss doesn't change that and Minnesota might be better than most people are making them out to be. The Niners got outcoached last week and outplayed from the get go but they're a much better team than they looked last week. They'll play a Jets team that, honestly, played one of the worst games I have ever seen last week, and will be hurting with the loss of Darrelle Revis for the season after he tore his ACL. The home crowd can and probably will give them a boost but, let's face it, they're probably overmatched and I think that Jim Harbaugh and Vic Fagiano will have a better defensive gameplan this week. The 49ers will win here picking up from where they left off last year with great 1:00 PM ET start time performances.
Result: San Francisco 21 New York 7


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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chargers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS
Both of these teams look like complete polar opposites coming into this game. The Chargers were 2-0 and after Denver took a loss to Atlanta two Mondays ago, looked to be in prime position to take an early lead in the AFC West. Unfortunately, San Diego was pasted by the Atlanta Falcons in San Diego last week. Meanwhile, Kansas City could not have started their season worse, and a visit to the Superdome to take on the Saints seemed to be the recipe for disaster. But, a late rally in New Orleans and an otherworldly performance by Jamaal Charles seemingly gave the Chiefs new life and now, with a victory at Arrowhead against the Chargers, they could be in position to have a share of first place in the AFC West if the other cards fall. How weird is this game? So weird that this is probably the toughest game to pick. But, I think the home team wins here, and Arrowhead gives the Chiefs a boost.
Result: San Diego 20 Kansas City 26


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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS
The Houston Texans, in my opinion, have looked like the best team in the NFL for the last three weeks. Sure, they haven't played any powerhouses yet and the best team that they faced was Denver this past Sunday, but that's hardly their fault. They'll get their chances later this season when they play the likes of New England, Chicago, Green Bay and Baltimore. I think they'll fare pretty well. J.J. Watt is playing like a man that wants the DPOY award, and Matt Schaub, despite losing part of his ear, has looked absolutely tremendous. Don't be totally surprised to see the Titans make some noise int his game though. Division games are usually far from lopsided, especially in the AFC South for the most part at least. I think though that the Texans will flex their muscles again, and while I won't rule out Tennessee making it close, I'm betting on it not happening.
Result: Tennessee 14 Houston 27


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Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX
It's throwback Sunday at the Georgia Dome and the Atlanta Falcons will be rocking their vintage threads as they take on their division rivals, the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons have been flying to new heights thus far this season, with an incredibly good turnover differential (+10, first in the NFL) and that comes along with seven interceptions and four recovered fumbles. Their D has only given up 16 PPG through three games, so you can tell Mike Nolan has left his fingerprints on this new look defense. Matt Ryan is probably playing his best football of his career and has looked like a MVP candidate. Meanwhile, the Panthers are reeling after a throttling by the New York Giants and Cam Newton has recently come under some scrutiny. Their secondary has looked shaky, but I think they should be primed for a good battle with Atlanta in this divisional matchup. I'll take the Dirty Birds, though.
Result: Carolina 17 Atlanta 28


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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS
My oh my, who could have predicted that the New England Patriots would start 1-2? Not I, but their problems have been visible so far this season. Their offensive line has been a major problem and Tom Brady has been under duress more often than he should be. Their offense has not been up to par with the usual Patriots and the defense has been pretty good, but not great. They will venture up to Orchard Park to take on a Buffalo team that, all things considered, aside from their opening week loss to the New York Jets, has not looked too terrible. In fact, of note, they have yet to give up a single sack so far this season. Last week against Cleveland, Andy Levitre, Eric Wood and Kraig Urbik according to PFF didn't let up a single sack, hit, or hurry despite playing every down. They will need that type of play against a youthful New England defense. I picked Buffalo at the beginning of the season to win this game, and I won't back down.
Result: New England 23 Buffalo 24


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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, CBS
If there's anything great to say about these two teams, it's that in spite of two poor performances against division rivals, they've managed to compete (and win) in the other games that they played in. The Bengals struggled out of the gate but sprung up two victories in a row against Cleveland and Washington. In both of those contests, the Bengal offense has looked dynamic with Andy Dalton under center and A.J. Green & Co. are looking like a stud-filled WR corp. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been pretty competitive also; the Gabbert-Shorts duo has registered two late touchdowns that either put them in position to win, or help them win, just like last week. These defenses looked great coming in but both have really sputtered so far this year. Give me the away team here, though, as I think Cincy can make a bit of a run.
Result: Cincinnati 30 Jacksonville 23


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Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, CBS
The 3-0 Arizona Cardinals... read that again, the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals. If that's hard to register, don't blame yourself. They are so far the surprise team of the league, especially with how porous their quarterback situation looked. It still is in my estimation, but this defense has played absolutely exceptional this year. Start getting ready to hear the names Calais Campbell and Daryl Washington a lot more often because they are studs in this league and deserve more recognition. They welcome in a Miami team that has looked less than stellar this season but has still managed to compete in their last two outings. They were involved in a game best suited for the toilet last week against the Jets, and dismantled the Raiders two weeks ago. I think Miami will find themselves a bit overmatched in this outing, only due to the defense of the Cardinals. 
Result: Miami 7 Arizona 21


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Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, CBS
Ah, nothing like some good old AFC West football, right? The second of two division clashes will take place in the Mile High City where, quite frankly, the Denver Broncos are still searching for an identity. After a solid victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the SNF opener they have come back to drop two games to two very good teams (Atlanta, Houston). For the most part, aside from the near disaster by Atlanta, they have been dominated in almost all phases of the game. It's puzzling, but going in, even though I thought they would be good, at the same time I did wonder about these concerns. They are spoonfed an Oakland team that has looked rather roughedged this season but they're coming off of a big OT win against the Pittsburgh Steelers (they sure don't like the AFC West on the road do they?) I think this game is a close one, and I think Denver resolves this two game losing streak.
Result: Oakland 20 Denver 23


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Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, FOX
A battle of 1-2's, and at this point you were probably expecting that unlike some other matchups. The Redskins dueled with the Bengals last week and the losses of Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo were quickly felt. The Bengals throttled them at home in a game that, all things considered, they probably could have still won. RGIII has been great, but he certainly cannot do everything. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has proven to be a tough out this season, but something still feels amiss here. Vincent Jackson had a near no-show performance last week against a really good Dallas secondary, but this week he is facing a much worse secondary so a logical person would say he probably fares pretty well. I say Tampa, but close.
Result: Washington 20 Tampa Bay 21


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New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, FOX
Last year, this was arguably the game of the regular season. This year... well, it might be close? The Saints could not have started the year off worse. They start off by getting slapped by Washington, then Carolina had their way with them, and then they collapsed to the Kansas City Chiefs. At home. In New Orleans. At the Superdome, a place where they didn't lose a home game last year and they've already lost two games. Meanwhile, the Packers have started off 1-2, but in all fairness they have played three of the best defenses in the NFL consecutively. This week? Green Bay is able to feast on one of the worst. I do not expect this to be remotely close, in fact, Green Bay is my lock of the week. Write it, print it, post it, hang it up on a wall, remember it. Green Bay, BIG.
Result: New Orleans 13 Green Bay 35


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New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC
Coming from the NY/NJ area, there's hardly anything better than Giants/Eagles, and this is our nightcap this week. This matchup never ceases to amaze with amazing moments that date back to the early years of the league. These two teams have been duking it out for years and years, and I expect nothing but the best this Sunday night. The Giants are 2-1 despite a lot of injuries, and problems in the secondary. Jason Pierre-Paul is quickly developing into an absolute freak, and Eli Manning, the league's leading passer, has looked stout. Meanwhile, the Eagles have looked like one of the weirdest 2-1 teams ever, but their defense, to their credit, has been awesome this year. Michael Vick might have to continue to run for his life against the Giants pass rush but I still think the Eagles will find a way to frustrate the Giants, because let's face it: they always do. Just ask those watching The Miracle at the Meadowlands II. Give me the Eagles in your usual classic Giants-Eagles game.
Result: Giants 21 Eagles 27

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