NFL Picks -- Week 10

The NFL season is churning up and things are getting extremely dicey. Bigger matchups are growing by the week with more implications adding up. This week is no different. Two 7-1 matchups, six intra-division matchups, and nine intra-conference matchups. The importance goes up for each team to win every week, and heck, the importance for me to get these picks right goes up every single week as well. You might disagree with me on these picks, and that's okay. Just now that this is how I see things down and only myself. Let's get going.

Thursday

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET

Commentators: Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan

These teams met up earlier in the season in Indy, and the ball game was decided in the final minutes. It's Jacksonville's only victory, and since the Jaguars have sputtered, while the Colts, with the emotional will from their sick head coach, have racked up an above .500 record and if the playoffs started today, they'd be in the thick of it. You can't really say enough about how this team has played and it really is a testament to how good Andrew Luck is. What I want to see from this game though is how Jacksonville can keep Blaine Gabbert, or whoever is back there, protected. I'll assume Dwight Freeney is going up against Eugene Monroe more often than not, and that's a wash. However, watch out for Robert Mathis against the lowly Guy Whimper. If Mathis gets past Whimper often, like I think he will, he'l be in for a huge day and Jacksonville's quarterback(s) will be in for a long day. I think this is the Lock of the Week. Indy wins, and I think they win by a substantial margin.

Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 13

Sunday

New York Giants vs. Cincinnati Bengals

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Thom Brennamen, Brian Billick

Those few weeks that we thought the Giants were superior, and that Eli Manning was a MVP candidate seems like a long time ago. Now, the Giants seem to be sputtering since their stomping of the San Francisco 49ers, and after a tough loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers where they were, frankly, dominated in the 4th Quarter, they now travel to Cincinnati. I'm interested in seeing this game, because it could really go either way I think. While I believe that the Giants are obviously the better team, I wouldn't put it past them to lose. They're vulnerable right now and Eli has gotten into a bit of a funk. He'll obviously be facing a very weak secondary here, but Andy Dalton should find some success with A.J. Green probably facing Corey Webster, who isn't exactly having a wonderful year. I'll take the Giants here, very cautiously though. I think that +4 for Cincinnati might be a smart pick, for all of you degenerates out there. 

New York 23 Cincinnati 21 

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Spero Dedes, Steve Tasker

The Tennessee Titans, quite frankly, are a mess. They have little things going for them aside from Chris Johnson's recent successes on the ground. The Miami Dolphins meanwhile were supposed to be a mess, but they are totally overachieving right now. They're 4-4 and are just one game out of the playoff hunt in the weak AFC and more importantly, first round pick Ryan Tannehill is playing very well. I want to see what he can do against this porous Tennessee defense. A big day wouldn't shock many, including myself. Conversely, I want to see what Tennessee has got left. Miami's 30th against the pass this year, so can Matt Hasselbeck and a pretty solid wide receiver corp get it going? Will Chris Johnson's successes on the ground continue against the third ranked defense in the league? I will say this though, and that's that I don't expect Sean Smith to give up anything deep. According to PFF, he's been targeted deep ten times this year, and has allowed zero completions. For the game, I like Miami here, but I do think that unlike last week, the Titans show some life and resolve.

Miami 30 Tennessee 21

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Dick Stockton, John Lynch

The Minnesota Vikings started off the season unexpectedly hot. However since beating the Tennessee Titans in Week 5 to go 4-1, they have just won one game and have given up 34.67 PPG in their last three defeats. What's the deal? Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions have only lost once since September 30th, and the offense seems to be getting back on track. I'll ask again, what's the deal? When you have two teams meeting that are clearly going in opposite directions, something's gotta give, right? The last time these two teams met (which, ironically, is only Detroit's second loss since Sep. 30) the Vikings special teams dominated the Lions' putrid unit. What interests me though is that in their last five outings, Percy Harvin has had 100 kick return yards just once, and that was against Washington back on the 14th of October. Harvin and the rest of the gang need to get it going and exploit the weakness that the Lions have, or Detroit's going to shock them in the Metrodome. And you know what? I think that's going to happen. I think Calvin Johnson -- FINALLY -- finds the end zone, and he does it twice, leading to a Lions victory. Look out folks, this team might be hitting their stride.

Detroit 24 Minnesota 16

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

I thought Buffalo was going to beat New England last time these two met. You know what? I was almost right. I would have been right if the game was played in just one half. Afterwards, the mighty Patriots blew by the Bills and dropped a 50-burger on them. Since that point, the Bills have been inconsistent, and to a lesser extent, so have the Patriots. They're not really looking like the Patriots of old as they try to maintain their balanced attack on the ground and through the air. I think though that this might be the perfect recipe for the Patriots to gain some confidence and start to play better overall, and also flex their muscles. I see Tom Brady throwing with ease at Buffalo's less-than-stellar secondary and the linebackers for Buffalo could be exposed as well by the great Rob Gronkowski. Keep your eye out though for Kyle Williams, defensive tackle from Buffalo. He's been a tough man to stop when he rushes the passer this year, and New England's line hasn't exactly done a great job of protecting Brady this year. The Patriots will win though, and cover the spread and then some.

Buffalo 14 New England 31

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa

Well, well, well. The Atlanta Falcons are 8-0 and the New Orleans Saints are 3-5. Who thought that was coming? Surely not you, nor I, but this is how we stand at this point and the chances that Atlanta blows New Orleans out of the water are probably closer than we want to believe. While Atlanta's secondary was a bit exposed this past week by Tony Romo and the Cowboys, they really did a good job of rebounding in the second half, and forcing Dallas to not be able to do what they wanted to go down the field. Pressure is a big thing here and I cannot stress enough how important it is for the Falcons to get after Drew Brees and do it often. This one's going to be personal for both Atlanta and New Orleans fans. There might not be a more underrated 'rivalry' (if you want to call it that) than the one that is down in the southeast. I think the Falcons will move to 9-0 and they won't forget some of the things that were done to them by the Saints in the last few years. They will, for once, get up for a 'big' game and do their thing. 

Atlanta 35 New Orleans 17

San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots

Here is, in my opinion, one of the more "intriguing" matchups of the day. The San Diego Chargers seem to sputter one week (see: at Cleveland, vs Denver) and look like a million bucks another (see vs and at Chiefs). They're a weird, weird team that still finds themselves in the Wild Card hunt in the AFC because let's face it: the Denver Broncos are probably well on their way to winning the AFC West for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who I certainly wasn't very high on in the beginning of the year, have been wowing opponents left and right and Doug Martin is churning up his case to be Offensive Rookie of the Year (which, unfortunately, will wind up going to Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III). The defense is vastly improved and a big reason for that is Gerald McCoy. McCoy is healthy and he's playing like a Pro Bowler, maybe even an All-Pro. Tampa is 1st against the run, giving up just 77.3 yards per game, which spells doom for a Chargers rushing attack that is 19th in the NFL in rushing, allotting just 105.9 YPG on the ground. I like the steady improvement of this Bucs team and frankly, I'm starting to wonder if they are better than people think. Give me Tampa here at home.
San Diego 19 Tampa Bay 23

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

Commentators: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

You know a way you can figure out how weak the AFC is? When Denver-Carolina is the game in their slate that gets the most viewership out of the country. I understand it has Peyton Manning in it but my goodness. Anyways, the Broncos are rolling towards another AFC West crown and a lot of that has to do with both Von Miller and of course, Peyton Manning. Manning has been lights out this year, reminiscent to the days of old, and Von Miller is just flat out awesome from the 4-3 OLB spot. It's not often you see a guy in that slot have, out of 226 pass rushes, 44 combined hits, sacks and hurries (nine sacks in his own right, so if you take that out, that's 35 times he's gotten to the quarterback that hasn't resulted in a sack). He's become extremely complete too. On the flipside, Carolina, of course, has been stung by the injury bug, and the inability to close out games. They by no means have looked horrible in any game this year except the contest against the New York Giants back in Week 3. They just can't seem to get over that hump and it's really becoming a problem. For this one, I think Denver is going to keep rolling along with the help of Von Miller, and Peyton should have fun against a now Chris Gamble-less secondary.
Denver 28 Carolina 17

Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens

CBS | 1:00 PM ET 

Commentators: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf

Baltimore's demise hasn't hit just yet, but with a backloaded schedule, it might end up happening soon. Nonetheless, they get served up a soft-serve Oakland Raiders club that is banged up. He suffered a high ankle sprain against Tampa Bay this past Sunday and now his status will probably be in doubt for this game and going ahead. It's not really good news for a guy that was already less than stellar in the zone-blocking scheme that Oakland now runs. Nonetheless, I can somehow see this Oakland team being competitive based upon the speed that they have at the wide receiver position, even if Carson Palmer is well, Carson Palmer. I think Baltimore will win this game, with a (hopefully) heavy dosage of Ray Rice and I think Terrell Suggs once again continues his push to a full recovery. They'll need to get a good pass rush going from somebody on that defense and perhaps it will be Dannell Ellerbe who has done a fantastic job this year of rushing the passer. Going forward though, I'm not really sure I like the outlook of both of these teams. That's another story for another day however. Either way, Baltimore wins and comfortably covers.

Oakland 14 Baltimore 23

New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks

CBS | 4:05 PM ET

Commentators: Marv Albert, Rich Gannon

For as much flack as the New York Jets take just about every week, they still somehow are in the midst of the AFC Playoffs race. They have a very, very daunting task in front of them this week though. The Seattle Seahawks are undefeated at home this year and they have one of the league's best defensive units from top to bottom. Mark Sanchez might be best off not throwing Richard Sherman's way, as Sherman has made a habit recently not only talking the talk, but walking the walk in the process, fending off top-flight wide receivers whenever he faces them. I will give the Jets a puncher's chance, though, as they have been known to play up to their competition and if they get a good running game broiled out, along with a solid defensive performance, they could squeak one out of a very hostile environment. However, I'm not banking on it, and I think Seattle will get this victory. It will be close, and expect defensive end Chris Clemons' name to be said a couple of times during the game.

New York Jets 10 Seattle Seahawks 14

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

FOX | 4:25 PM ET

Commentators: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Is this the matchup of the two biggest underachievers in the league? Quite possibly. Even their biggest detractors couldn't have pictured a combined 6-10 for these teams heading into this matchup. It usually gets touted as a major game for the major markets, but this might wind up being a comical performance. Nonetheless I really want to see how both Dallas and Philadelphia respond to their defeats on Sunday and Monday nights, respectively. Will the Cowboys exploit a despondent Eagles squad that just isn't cutting the muster this year? Or is Philadelphia going to pull something out of their butts and beat Dallas in the fashion that they tend to do? To me, I just don't think Philadelphia is that good, and something has to go right for Dallas eventually right? I think the Law of Averages comes up large for Dallas and Tony Romo has a big day at the Linc. Am I saying that Dallas is going to go on the road and officially snuff out any last gasps of hope that Philadelphia, and their head coach have, of doing well this season? Yes. I am.

Dallas 24 Philadelphia 14

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

FOX | 4:25 PM ET

Commentators: Chris Myers, Tim Ryan

This game might only be seen by those in Missouri and those in California, but I think this one's going to be a really interesting contest. We've seen how successful the San Francisco 49ers have been, aside from two outings (against the Giants, and the Vikings) but I'm really interested in seeing how this St. Louis Rams team plays. They've been a very interesting bunch, even though they have declined a bit from how they were playing in the beginning of the season. Their passing yards against has increased, as well as their run defense, but that was partially due to some exposure by two of the best quarterbacks in the game today, two weeks in a row. It's no easy task to do that, either. Nonetheless after a bye week and a trip to London, the thing I will be watching is how St. Louis gets a pass rush generated against arguably the best offensive line in football, and the unchallenged best rushing attack in the league. If they keep them stout and force Alex Smith to start throwing, then perhaps the Rams stand a chance. I think that the 49ers defense will snuff any chance of that happening though, and Sam Bradford will probably be running for his life more often than not. The 49ers will win this game as they prepare to host Chicago the week after on Monday Night Football, which should be a dandy.

St. Louis 13 San Francisco 23

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

NBC | 8:20 PM ET

Commentators: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

Two of the NFL's best teams? Check. Two of the best defenses in the NFL? Check. Two Defensive Player of the Year candidates? Check. (Well, assuming Charles Tillman's baby isn't delivered on Sunday evening). Two of the league's best wide receivers? Check. Two of the league's, at their best, most dynamic running backs? Check. What more could you really ask for in this game? This is a lot of people's Super Bowls, so some will be envisioning this contest taking place in the month of February in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as they watch this contest in Soldier Field. I've been a big proponent on the Texans from day one, and from day one I've also said that they are going to win this game. Even if the Bears defense is doing unbelievable things like they are, I'm not switching my stance on this. Even if the Texans are forced to pass against a stout run defense, I see them finding success, and that's not to say Chicago's going to get the doors blown off of them. I will say though that this will be their first legitimate challenge since Week 2 when they were beaten by the Green Bay Packers. So, I'm interested in seeing how they respond, knowing full well that they have to travel out to San Francisco the following week for yet another tough, daunting task. This one could be the Game of the Year so far, and I'm very, very excited to see it. Give me the Houston Texans in this contest, edging out the Bears, as I'm sensing a Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson combination late in the 4th Quarter to put the Bears away.
Houston 21 Chicago 17

Monday

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

ESPN | 8:40 PM ET

Commentators: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters

This one will be, uh... interesting? I suppose if you wanted to put an adjective to this contest, that would be the one. The Kansas City Chiefs are, well, not what I nor most expected them to be. I don't think people thought they were going to be one of the league's worst teams, if not the league's worst team. That's where they stand however, and their chances in this game haven't exactly improved lately. Pittsburgh seems to be finding their mark and hitting it all day and night, as they have rattled off two straight victories against Washington and on the road against the New York Giants, with some tough travel in the latter, perhaps making it even more impressive. The thing I'm looking for in this contest is whether or not Justin Houston and/or James Harrison make big enough impacts to have their teams be in position to win. We know full well of what James Harrison is capable of, but I think most of the country is going to like what they see out of Justin Houston. He's been about as productive as a pass rusher can be and has been phenomenal, quite frankly. Still though, I think KC is a bit overmatched to say the least in this contest, and if it were on the road I would give Kansas City a better chance. It's not though, and that means that the Steelers are probably going to leave the Chiefs in the dust. 

Kansas City 13 Pittsburgh 27