NFL Picks -- Week 9

We are now officially eight weeks down in the 2012 NFL season. It's been a heck of a season so far and it is only on pace to get better as better matchups arrive with higher implications. This week there are some pretty good matchups, and the 4:25 PM game is a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks from one of the best draft classes in the history of the game. How do I think Week 9 is going to go? Here's my take.

Thursday

vs.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers

NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET

The San Diego Chargers seemed like they were going to be a solid team this year. Then they took a terrible loss to the Denver Broncos, and followed that up with a dud in Cleveland against the lowly Browns. They return home for another primetime matchup, but this time it is against the even lowlier Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have yet to lead this season and it doesn't look like things are going to change. I do wonder how Justin Houston, premiere pass rusher this year for the Chiefs will fare against Jeromey Clary, the Chargers' right tackle. Clary is good at run-blocking but very suspect against the pass. If Houston plays well I think he can stunt the Chargers on offense, but I don't see how Kansas City goes to San Diego and puts up a win. Things get worse for K.C. here, I believe.

Kansas City 13 San Diego 24 

Sunday

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

The Denver Broncos have caught a bit of fire as of late, smoking by the Chargers and Saints in consecutive weeks and Peyton Manning is on his game. It almost looks ridiculous that anybody questioned how he would come off of his surgically repaired neck. They bring this two-game winning streak into Cincinnati where the Bengals are still, in my opinion, left without an identity. They're solid, not spectacular on offense, and their defense is borderline mediocre. To win this game, I think the Broncos need to keep doing what they're doing on offense, and most importantly, shut down studly wide receiver A.J. Green. Champ Bailey has been very good this year and he most likely will be matched up with the young man from The University of Georgia. On the opposite side, Cincinnati is going to need to do everything in their power to stop Demaryius Thomas, who is coming off of a ridiculously good game against New Orleans. I'm not sure that a team that still is without an identity can pick up a win here, so I'm going to say Denver wins and comfortably covers the spread. 

Denver 27 Cincinnati 16

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

The last time that these two teams met up, it was a closer affair than most would have expected. Now, a few weeks later, a hobbled Baltimore Ravens team goes into Cleveland and there seems to be a sense that there might be an upset brewing. Cleveland did a good job last week of preventing Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers from doing much of anything, and as we have seen from Baltimore, Cam Cameron's playcalling tends to be very pass-happy even though they have an extremely dynamic runner in Ray Rice. If Baltimore can exploit some matchup problems in Cleveland's defense they can have a good day but on the other side of the spectrum, they have to find a way to attack Cleveland's boisterous tackles. Both Joe Thomas and Mitchell Schwartz have been great this year, especially the elite Thomas, who has only given up 10 pressures this year and just one sack. I think Baltimore wins this, but it's going to be very, very close.

Baltimore 20 Cleveland 17

Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

If you want a matchup of two teams that are going in completely opposite directions of each other, look no further than this game. The Arizona Cardinals started off at 4-0, but since then they have been sluggish, they have let their quarterbacks get decimated in the backfield, and have lost four straight games to even up their record. Meanwhile, the Packers were very sluggish out of the gate but have picked up consecutive wins against Houston, St. Louis, and Jacksonville to get themselves into the race of the NFC North and the NFC Wild Card spots. Aaron Rodgers looks to be playing phenomenal football, if there was any doubt, and the defense has been spotty, but when they're on, they are on. To me, this seems like an extremely easy pick. Whomever is back there for Arizona is probably going to have another long afternoon given that the Cardinals have the two absolute tackle combination in the league. Expect Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, and whomever Green Bay decides to rush with to have a field day. Packers win, very comfortably.

Arizona 13 Green Bay 30

Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

The Chicago Bears are playing like the Chicago Bears traditionally do. That's a good thing, to some extent. It's great that their defense is playing lights out, but it's not so great that the offense, in Week 9, still does not seem to have a grip on things even with Brandon Marshall having a very good season. I figured that playing the Lions and Panthers secondary would help Jay Cutler gain some confidence as tougher opponents and tougher defenses in general such as Houston and San Francisco loom, but he still hasn't gotten it together. This week they play the Titans, who have been abhorrent on defense in 2012. They rank 29th in passing yards allowed (282.0 YPG/a), 28th in rushing defense (139.3 RPG/a), and 31st in points allowed (32.1 PPG/a). Let's put it this way: if the Chicago Bears offense can't get it going against a defensive unit this awful, it might be time to actually start getting really concerned about how this offense is playing. The Bears will win this game and cover, but should bad Jay show up...

Chicago 24 Tennessee 10

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

Not sure most people expected both of these teams to be close to a playoff spot in Week 9 of the 2012 season, but, in the less than stellar AFC, that's what we have here. In fact, as of this writing, the Colts and the Dolphins are both playoff teams, thanks to tiebreakers over Pittsburgh thanks to a better record in conference. Whoever thought that would happen? Nonetheless, i think this is going to be a pretty interesting contest. There might not be a better pass rushing 4-3 defensive end in the NFL this year than Cameron Wake and against some subpar offensive tackles this week, he might make Andrew Luck's life a living hell. On the flip side  Luck's contributions to the Colts have been phenomenal and for a team that is pretty much the same as they were last year, it's really a testament to what he brings to the table. In a weak 1PM slate, I can see this being the game of the afternoon, actually. I think this comes down to the 4th quarter and will depend on who makes the least amount of mistakes, given that we (probably) have two rookie quarterbacks starting. Reggie Wayne is going to need to have a huge day against Sean Smith and Nolan Carroll, who both have been good. When Wayne is in the slot he'll face Jimmy Wilson, who's yet to be tested very much this year. I like Miami to actually come away with this victory and move to 5-3 and I think that Cameron Wake is going to take this game over.

Miami 23 Indianapolis 17

Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers have been an unmitigated disaster in 2012. Coming in with a lot of hype, and with some (in my opinion, stupidly  thinking they were going to be contenders to win the NFC South and make the playoffs, they have stumbled to a 1-5 record despite being in the thick of most of the games that they have played. They can't seem to do the little things, and their defense can't do anything to try and stop the offenses that they play. Having to face the incredibly dynamic Robert Griffin III is not what the doctor ordered. Griffin III is playing like he's going to run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and has made the Redskins somewhat relevant. I think something to watch in this game though, is how the Skins keep Griffin upright. They did a decent job against Pittsburgh last week, and they now face a Panthers team who has done a good job pressuring off the edge themselves this year. Charles Johnson has been tremendous this year, and if he gets going he can put the Panthers in position to win. I do foresee points being scored in bunches since these two defenses aren't very good, but I expect the Redskins to come out on top. 

Carolina 24 Washington 28

Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

FOX | 1:00 PM ET

Saying that the Detroit Lions have been underwhelming this year might be a disservice to the word. The offense is not nearly as explosive as it was last year, Matt Stafford isn't putting up the kind of numbers you would have thought he would, and Calvin Johnson has looked... human at times. Weird thought to think of. Calvin this year has, according to the good people at Pro Football Focus, has dropped seven of 48 catchable passes thrown his way. Not a good look for the All-Pro. However, the Lions still strangely are finding ways to get it done, for example last week against Seattle where they won in the final seconds thanks to a Titus Young TD. They face a much easier task against a Jacksonville team that played Green Bay really well last week, but still wound up taking a loss anyways. I think Calvin will have a pretty good day and finally get into the end zone once or twice against a beleaguered defense that the Jags possess. I see Detroit winning fairly comfortable, and not having to be put into a last-second situation this week. The defense will play well and I think they come away with a few takeaways.

Detroit 23 Jacksonville 12 

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

CBS | 1:00 PM ET

The Houston Texans are, by far, the best team in the AFC. They're great on both sides of the ball, and so far their special teams aren't looking too bad either. They have had two duds of performances this year and luckily they came out of that at a .500 record. With the Chicago Bears looming next week on Sunday Night Football, it's going to be interesting to see how this team comes off of a bye week against an inferior opponent in Buffalo. Do they get caught napping again and play close with Buffalo? Or do they destroy the Bills and make a significant statement to the rest of the league? I think something in between is going to happen, and Houston will look very, very impressive. I think that this is easily the Lock of the Week, and I won't even think twice about it. J.J. Watt will make Ryan Fitzpatrick's life a living hell. On a different note, it will be interesting to see how Buffalo covers Andre Johnson. They have some good secondary players, like Jairus Byrd who is one of the best free safeties in the game, but the corners have been extremely less than stellar. Houston is currently favored by 10 points and I think that they comfortably cover that spread. 

Buffalo 13 Houston 34

Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks

FOX | 4:05 PM ET

The Minnesota Vikings stand at 5-3 through eight weeks of the season. Unfortunately for them, this is just the first week of the meat of their schedule. After dropping a game to Tampa Bay, who they are arguably better than, wasn't a good way to start this stretch. Now they take a trek to Seattle, where the Seahawks have yet to take a loss. They play an interesting style of football and are forming an identity in the process. To be honest, I think an upset is in the making here. Minnesota will ground-and-pound through a good defensive line but I like Seattle to do the same and when forced to throw, I like Seattle's defense to make the plays more than I like Minnesota's. Chris Clemons could have a huge game rushing the passer if Minnesota chooses to pass a lot, which isn't likely, but I do wonder how he will look against the run. He's been mediocre this year against the run, and he'll go up against one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league in Kyle Rudolph. Even so, I think Seattle stays undefeated at home and picks up a much-needed victory, sending Minnesota down to start their imminent tailspin.

Seattle 17 Minnesota 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders

FOX | 4:05 PM ET

Boy, remember when these two teams made the Super Bowl against one another? The 2002-03 season looks like a long, long time ago for both of these franchises as they really haven't done much since. In terms of this year, Tampa is surprising me every week with how solid they seem to be playing, especially on defense. Gerald McCoy looks like he's starting to slightly live up to the draft pick that he was chosen at and Doug Martin looks like he's going to be a very dynamic two-way running back in the NFL. Meanwhile the Raiders have been incredibly inconsistent this year, playing up with some of the better teams in the league and then finding ways to totally plummet when it matters most. They at least took care of business last week against the worst team in the NFL in the Kansas City Chiefs last week at Arrowhead Stadium. I think they're going to be overmatched in this game though as Tampa Bay continues to present themselves as an improving team in this contest.

Tampa Bay 24 Oakland 14

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants

FOX | 4:25 PM ET

The last two times these teams have met, they've brought out the best in each other. The Steelers won in 2004 in New Jersey, and the Giants won in 2008 in Pittsburgh. We've got ourselves a rubber match, and it arguably couldn't have come at a better time. Both Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, who were both selected in the 2004 NFL Draft, are playing about as great as they have ever played, and are both MVP candidates this season. When you have two great quarterbacks in the same game, it's really going to come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes. While I don't think that these two will make many, I think Pittsburgh is lacking in some areas that Eli and the Giants are going to exploit. This might be a case where Ben might out play Eli, but Ben's team will lose because he can't do enough to have them win. I sense the Giants overwhelming the Steelers as they continue to reign supreme over the NFC East. I do though, while I say that, say that the Steelers can get something going if Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace can beat Prince Amukamara and Corey Webster. The latter, being much easier to beat this season.

Pittsburgh 17 New York 28