NFL Picks - Week 3

(Credit: Reuters/Ray Stubblebine)

Alright, so I didn’t exactly have the best picks last week in the NFL. Neither did most though, so if that validates it slightly, I’ll take it. Yes? No? Maybe? Either way, It’s time to put that past me, and move to Week 3. There are several great games available to the fans this week with some big names, great teams and great players facing off with each other. Seems just like another Sunday in the NFL. With that said, let’s get to it.

Thursday

New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL Network, 8:20 PM ET)

The Giants will be bringing a M*A*S*H unit to Charlotte for a Thursday night encounter with Cam Newton and the Panthers. The Giants just learned today that Hakeem Nicks will be unable to play and this is about as big of a blow that they could get. Don’t forget to pick up Reuben Randle this week who, unless Ramses Barden makes his way onto the field, will probably get some chances. The Giants’ secondary has looked abysmal and last week, Cam was able to play very well against another porous secondary/defense in the New Orleans Saints. Nonetheless, I think the Giants pick up a hard fought victory here, but trouble will continue to loom for this team in the future.

Result: New York 27 Carolina 23

Sunday

St. Louis Rams vs. Chicago Bears (FOX, 1:00 PM ET)

What a doozy of a week it has been in Chicago, eh? The Bears have been all over the news because of some blowups (that I personally think are being made out to be more than they actually are) and, of course, the thumping that they took from the hated rival Packers. They’ll return to Soldier Field to take on a Rams team that has impressed me a lot the past two weeks. They fought hard with the Detroit Lions in Week 1, coming down to the final possession, and picked up a rare home victory (only 13 wins at the EJD since 2006) against a tough looking Washington Redskins team. I think this will be another case where this Rams club looks impressive, but Chicago, despite how poor they looked in Green Bay, is a much better team than the Rams are. Right? Also, Chris Long will have two sacks in this game.

Result: St. Louis 13 Chicago 21

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Redskins (CBS, 1:00 PM ET)

If Josh Morgan was not a knucklehead, Washington would be 2-0 and would have a share of first place in the NFC East. That’s how the cookie can crumble sometimes though, and the Redskins also had a lot of harsh news dealt to them earlier this week; pass rusher Brian Orakpo and interior lineman Adam Carriker were both lost for the season due to injuries they suffered in St. Louis. Expect Ryan Kerrigan to blow up now. Washington will be welcoming in a Cincinnati team that for as good as they have looked on offense, they have looked just as bad – if not worse on defense. 71 points and 869 yards against Baltimore and Cleveland for a defense that was within the Top 10 last year is not a good look. I think it will be more of the same this week, but the Redskins get a victory in front of what should be a loud crowd at FedEx Field.

Result: Cincinnati 24 Washington 33

Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans (FOX, 1:00 PM ET)

Talk about a battle of two teams that totally are lacking an identity through the first two weeks. Detroit struggled mightily with St. Louis at home in Week 1 and then were overwhelmed by San Francisco in Week 2. Matthew Stafford has been sailing throws over the likes of his targets, and the run game has been completely non-existent. Meanwhile, Tennessee has looked less than stellar to say the least against the likes of New England and San Diego, and Chris Johnson has looked totally awful. The defense for Tennessee hasn’t been much better either, giving up 806 yards and 72 points in those two contests. Detroit, at least, has looked better on defense. I was particularly high on both these teams and thought they would both win at most nine games, and in Tennessee’s case I may have missed the mark. I will go with the lesser of two evils.

Result: Detroit 34 Tennessee 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints (CBS, 1:00 PM ET)

Well, this is awkward. The lone 0-2 team in the NFC takes on one of many 0-2 teams from the AFC in the locale of Super Bowl XLVII. This one will be far from super, though. Kansas City has played uninspired football since the second half of their season opener against Atlanta, and was gashed by C.J. Spiller and the Buffalo Bills last week up in Western New York. The Saints have not looked much better either, as they have been torn up on the field and statistically by both yards per game they are the worst defense in the league. And get this: Kansas City and New Orleans are both the worst defenses in terms of points per game through the first two games of the season. I’ll side with the home team here, but if the Saints lose AGAIN at home, expect there to be a massive panic-button movement.

Result: Kansas City 20 New Orleans 35

San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (FOX, 1:00 PM ET)

The last time that the 49ers traveled to the Metrodome, this happened. Don’t expect that to happen again though; the 49ers are far and away the best team in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. They’re complete on both sides of the ball and are a very good special teams unit too. Alex Smith has looked terrific, and the league’s best defensive unit has allowed just 41 points against two high-octane offenses, mostly due to prevent defenses in the latter part of the game against Green Bay and some cautious play towards the end of the game against Detroit. I wouldn’t sleep on the Minnesota Vikings though. They have shown a hell of a lot of resiliency the last two weeks including an overtime win two weeks ago against Jacksonville, and a near-comeback victory against the Indianapolis Colts last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota hangs around with San Francisco for a while, but I think they are overmatched.

Result: San Francisco 24 Minnesota 16

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (CBS, 1:00 PM ET)

Ah, few things can produced more interesting matchups than the Dolphins-Jets rivalry. Miami has won five of the last seven games against New York, including a victory to effectively KO the Jets’ playoff chances last year on the final day of the regular season. This is a far cry from when the Jets won five in a row from October 15, 2006 - September 7, 2008. Both teams have had Jekyll & Hyde performances his year; Miami looked dreadful in Week 1 and awesome in Week 2, and it was the exact opposite for New York. I would say that the difference might be that Darrelle Revis may not be playing, but Miami’s lack of a legitimate wide receiver may leave that to be an afterthought. Nonetheless, this may come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes. So I am going to with … the Jets. Mark Sanchez looks sharp, but Tim Tebow scores a rushing TD.

Result: New York 21 Miami 19

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (CBS, 1:00 PM ET)

Remember when these two teams put up a stinker in Buffalo a few years back? The quality for the Bills has changed since then, but Cleveland might have gotten worse. Their offense admittedly looked much better last week against Cincinnati, but that might have been a product of them facing a surprisingly struggling Bengals defense. Brandon Weeden looked extremely competent and was kept upright for the most part, and Trent Richardson looked great. That will be a challenge this week as he faces a Buffalo defensive line that did a great job of pressuring Matt Cassel last week (15 pressures, five sacks, and made Cassel 2/9 on pass attempts). Kyle Williams had two sacks, two hurries and was stout against the run. He’ll need to be again as they face Trent Richardson who looked fierce las week against Cincinnati. I expect this to be a pretty decent affair, actually, but I think Buffalo is much more superior, so they should come out on top.

Result: Buffalo 25 Cleveland 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (FOX, 1:00 PM ET)

Now here is a game of two teams that looked great in Week 1, but were left sour after Week 2. The controversial Tampa Bay Buccaneers rumble into Big D where they are 1-9 all time. They do that off of the heels of their ‘controversial’ negation of a kneel down in the Meadowlands last week. Greg Schiano’s taken a lot of flack, but personally I think he’ll have his boys ready. Meanwhile the Dallas Cowboys, after being on top of the football world two weeks ago were dethroned by the Seattle Seahawks on the road on Sunday. With credit to them though, the Cowboys did play in a tough place. Josh Freeman & Co. will definitely be facing a tougher defense and secondary than they did last week, and I do see this fiery team coming out with a lot of life. In the end though, I think Dallas prevails.

Result: Tampa Bay 14 Dallas 21

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (CBS, 1:00 PM ET)

I incorrectly missed on Indianapolis’ first victory in the Andrew Luck Era last week. Frankly I have liked what I have seen from the Colts, their fanbase, and from Luck also. He’s stood tall against two pretty good pass rushing teams (even though Jared Allen is nowhere to be found so far this season) and his poise is looking pretty high. The Jacksonville Jaguars will stomp into Indianapolis, and I’m not necessarily taking last week’s performance as a legitimate reason to think this team stinks. They may, but they played against arguably the best team in the AFC in the Houston Texans. All indications are that Blaine Gabbert will be playing, but he might not have a good day. Guy Whimper has looked awful, and I think that if the Colts are smart, they’ll line Robert Mathis up to where he is and Mathis might have a field day rushing the passer if that’s the case. If they instead have him go against Eugene Monroe, then Gabbert has a chance to stand upright. This may not produce a high-quality game, but there are some bits and pieces that are necessary to watch. I like the Colts at home, though, and I think the Colts will move to a “surprising” above .500 record.

Result: Jacksonville 17 Indianapolis 21

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Diego Chargers (FOX, 4:05 PM ET)

It’s a shame that San Diego won’t be selling out Qualcomm for this contest. They’re missing out on a 2-0 Chargers team that looks a lot better than I personally expected them to look. The defense looks great, they have gotten production out of players that I certainly didn’t expect them to like Kendall Reyes, and Melvin Ingram looks like a beast. Philip Rivers looking sharp the first two weeks helps matters also and all indications are that running back Ryan Mathews will be back this week. Beware the Dirty Birds, though. After an impressive performance against the Chiefs, they followed that up with a very good game against the Denver Broncos. Don’t let the final score fool you; the Falcons had control of that game before they went into über-conservative mode. The defense has Mike Nolan’s imprints on it and Matt Ryan is playing up to MVP-caliber mode. The Falcons under Mike Smith are 5-0 on the west coast, and after I think a well-fought game, they’ll move to 6-0, after a late pull away.

Result: Atlanta 27 San Diego 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals (FOX, 4:05 PM ET)

In a rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship Game, two early unbeaten teams will do battle and for one of those teams, they are coming off of a huge upset. The Arizona Cardinals did the unthinkable and walked into Foxborough and came out with a victory in the New England Patriots’ home opener. Ray Horton’s defense was flying all over the field and making life hell for Tom Brady, which is not something that he is used to seeing unless it’s the New York Giants doing that job. It’s not like it’s all schemes though; Daryl Washington and Calais Campbell are very unlucky they play in a division with the likes of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, and Justin Smith because they are great, great players. This Philadelphia team that is flying into Glendale is no joke, either it seems. Despite their high amount of turnovers, their defense has looked incredibly stout and Philadelphia has won their last ten games dating back to last year. Without preseason, that’s six, which is still an exceptional feat. Brandon Boykin is looking great, too. I think that this could actually be one of the best games of the day, and despite a high-energy crowd, I think Philadelphia escapes with a victory.

Result: Philadelphia 20 Arizona 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders (CBS, 4:25 PM ET)

Had Oakland came away with the AFC West last year this would have been a Wild Card matchup. Think about that one for a second. Nonetheless this year the Raiders look totally different. They may have the worst secondary in the entire league and perhaps, especially after last week, a run defense that is far from great. Those two things may spell disaster for them as a Pittsburgh team that just came off of a huge victory against the New York Jets last week at home. While a bit shaky in the first week, the defense for the Steelers looks crisp and strong, and may get stronger if James Harrison is healthy enough to play this week. I have liked what I have seen from Carson Palmer and the Raiders passing attack. Darren McFadden has looked lost against the likes of San Diego and Miami so I’m not sure how he’s going to be able to attack the Steelers defense. Oakland will need to provide a big game plan for this game, because I see Pittsburgh running away with this one otherwise.

Result: Pittsburgh 26 Oakland 13

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos (CBS, 4:25 PM ET)

What a game this is going to be. Peyton Manning knows the Houston Texans extremely well, but he has never faced a Texans defensive unit like the one he’s going to face this Sunday. J.J. Watt through the first two weeks looks like he could be the Defensive Player of the Year, and they have only allowed 248 passing yards through two weeks of play. What’s most impressive may be that they are 17-for-19 on 3rd down stops. Manning and the Broncos nearly gave Atlanta all that they could handle but that was after the fact that Manning looked like he was sailing throws and making some wobbly ones at that. He cannot afford to do that against this secondary and against this defense in general because then, the Houston Texans offense which has looked fantastic through the air (449 yards for Matt Schaub through two weeks) and on the ground (299 yards churned up rushing the football) will make them pay. I think this has all the makings of the game of the day. Give me Houston.

Result: Houston 23 Denver 17

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 PM ET)

The AFC Championship rematch that Baltimore fans have waited eight long months to see. If not for a Billy Cundiff shank (or a great play by Sterling Moore who doesn’t get anywhere near enough credit for it) the Ravens would have been Super Bowl bound. Two weeks ago these teams looked terrific, but last week, in their own rights, these teams looked flawed. New England’s offensive line was destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals and Tom Brady and the Patriot offense did not look sharp. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense let up some late scorers and Joe Flacco had an abysmal second half where he only completed eight of 29 pass attempts. I think both coaches will have these teams properly coached up. After eight long months, I think Baltimore exacts some revenge, and picks up the big victory, sending the Patriots to 1-2 and looking for answers.

Result: New England 16 Baltimore 23