Let's Break it Down: The Montero-Pineda Trade

Remember when it seemed like the New York Yankees were unusually quiet during the offseason? That seems like a distant memory now after the Yankees and Seattle Mariners agreed to terms on a blockbuster trade this evening. The Bronx Bombers dealt their highly touted prospect Jesus Montero, along with prospect/relief pitcher Hector Noesi to the M's for sensational starting pitcher Michael Pineda and prospect Jose Campos.

Both sides seem to have gotten a good deal out of this swap. The Yankees addressed their clear-as-day need for starting pitching, while the Mariners improved their anemic offense by getting a bat with outstanding potential. But let's dig deeper and break things down to see if there was a winner, and a loser, shall we?

For starters, here's some info on Michael Pineda:

• Pineda, in his rookie season in 2011 had a 4.23 ERA against the American League East. Against all other competition, he had a 3.29 ERA
• Pineda held RH hitters to a .184 BAA, the best in Major League Baseball in 2011
• Pineda suffered a setback in his second half, going 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA
• Pineda's HR rate dipped from 1 HR/11.3 IP to 1 HR/7.3 IP in the second half of 2011
• Pineda's 173 K were the most by any pitcher under 22 years old since Kerry Wood in 1998 (223 K)
• Pineda's FIP away from Safeco Field was 3.26, lower than at Safeco Field (Pineda's home FIP was 3.62)

As for Montero:

• Montero has been one of the most highly touted prospects in MLB for the last several years
• His stellar power numbers would greatly improve an anemic offense in the Pacific NW. Montero in 69 plate appearances in 2011 slugged .590 and hit 4 home runs.

(All stats were provided by fangraphs.com and ESPN Stats & Info's Twitter page, and this ESPN.com blog post)

Clearly there are differences between the two. Montero's small sample size precludes anybody of making a full assessment on him, while Pineda nearly pitched an entire season in the major leagues last season.

While all of this is true, Pineda's dip in numbers in the second half and his high ERA against the AL East is also a concern. But his upside is phenomenal, and the fact that it was his first season in the majors may also give him a pass. Montero has been regarded as a soon-to-be full-time DH due to his lack of ability to catch and field, so positional value is a possible risk (given that Miguel Olivo, of all people, is probably a better fielding catcher than he).

So for right now rather than to anoint one team a winner or another team, I'll give this trade a no contest. We'll wait a few years to see how this trade of two young studs turns out for both teams and whether one GM will regret it in hindsight.