2012-13 NBA Season Preview

Despite the shortened season thanks to a brutal lockout, the 2011-12 NBA season was one of the best in recent memory. Tonight, we are going to be kicking off the 2012-13 season, luckily on time this year, and there are plenty of interesting storylines, great players, a solid rookie class, and teams that will impress and depress, too. Being that we’re at this point in time where the season is about to begin, here’s how I see things shaking down. You’ll get a look at my division winners, my playoff seeding, my playoffs, my conference finals, my NBA Finals and results. You’ll see who I think is going to be the NBA MVP, Rookie of the Year, 6th Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Defensive Player of the Year. So away we go.

***

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Celtics: The sexy pick might be the Brooklyn Nets, the dark horse pick might be the 76ers, and the Knicks… well, they’ll get into the Playoffs too, but I like the Boston Celtics to win the Atlantic because I just think that they’re a better team than all the other clubs in this division. They had a pretty solid draft, getting big man Fab Melo and forward Jared Sullinger, who while I don’t think has huge potential in the NBA, can change that perception with the backing of veterans like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. They also picked up solid veterans like Courtney Lee and Jason Terry, who I think is an excellent replacement for Ray Allen who looked lost at times last year for how great he’s been. And of course, they have one of the best point guards in the NBA in Rajon Rondo who might be hitting his prime. Really like this Boston team, and really think they might run away with the Atlantic, all things considered.

2. Philadelphia 76ers: Despite the fact that they lost Andre Iguodala in the offseason, they also gained Andrew Bynum. Bynum might be inactive with a bone bruise in his right knee, and may miss a few games to start, but I think this Sixers team might be better than a lot of teams are giving them credit for. They’ve been dwelling in the lower-ranks of the Eastern Conference Playoffs the last two years but I think they take a bit of a broad jump this year and finish near the Top-4 in the conference. Look for Jrue Holliday to have a solid year that might go under the radar.

3. New York Knicks: The good news for the Knicks is that Mike D’Antoni is gone. The bad news is that this team looks like they’ve come out of a retirement home. Seriously. Kurt Thomas, Rasheed Wallace, and Jason Kidd all became Knicks in the offseason. From having such promise after unloading so many bad contracts, what do the Knicks do? They sign a bunch of senior citizens. I like Tyson Chandler, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and I still think Carmelo has a chance, (a small one at that) to turn things around, but other than that…? There’s not much to speak of. I see this team around the 6-8 range, taking a step back from last year, and Knicks fans will still clamor for the golden years. And, of course, for James Dolan to be exterminated.

4. Brooklyn Nets: Not really seeing the buzz. Do I think Joe Johnson brings something to the table? Yes. I think he brings a good amount of scoring and along with Deron Williams, can be a pretty good backcourt. Do I also think Joe Johnson brings an outrageous contract over to the Nets? Why, yes, of course. I also don’t really like the look of Brook Lopez, or that awful, awful max contract that the Nets duped themselves into when they swung and missed at Dwight Howard. I think at best, the Nets can be the seven-seed in the Eastern Conference with a hard-fought first round exit, but at worst I can see this team around the 10 or 11 range. There’s a lot of ifs with this team, and I’m just sensing disappointment. Maybe I’ll be wrong.

5. Toronto Raptors: Well, if we want to be cautiously optimistic about, it’s that Andrea Bargnani seems to finally be hitting his stride, and that they quietly added a decent crop of players, like rookie Terrence Ross, Landry Fields, Kyle Lowry, John Lucas III and Jonas Valanciunas will be coming from overseas to play for the Raptors. To be honest, the Raptors should be a pretty good team this year. There are plenty more strides to be made for them going forward, but the building blocks are in place. And hey, Toronto’s got something to try and root for while hockey’s on the mend, right?

Central Division

1. Indiana Pacers: For the first time since the 2003-04 season, the Indiana Pacers will win the Central Division in 2012-13. As they stand right now, with them getting rid of some dead weight from a second unit that let up too many points, they look like a pretty good team from top-to-bottom, and if things go right, I definitely think they are a credible threat to the Miami Heat, even though I don’t think they will actually beat them (Spoilers!). Roy Hibbert might be hurt by the new All-Star voting process, but I expect about as good of a season as he had last year, if not better. Danny Granger’s situation is dicey at the moment, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paul George step in at the forward and go with D.J. Augstin and George Hill at the top two guards while he’s out. I definitely like Indiana to get a Top 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, that’s for certain.

2. Chicago Bulls: Let me start off by saying if Tom Thibodeau coaches this Bulls team to a Central Division title and another Top 3 seed, he might be the coach of the 21st Century. He’s done a magnificent job with his defensive system while in The Windy City and is definitely a favorite amongst Chicago fans. Even though I don’t expect Derrick rose back until early 2013, I think this team is very solid. They added some veteran presence in the offseason and still have some very solid players all over the place. If you think the Bulls are going to fall off a lot this year without Rose, be prepared to eat your words.

3. Detroit Pistons: Surprise, surprise! Here we have our first shocking pick of the post. Yes, I think the Detroit Pistons are going to be 3rd in the Central Division, and in fact I think they’re going to slip into the NBA Playoffs. I really like Greg Monroe and while I’m not totally sold on Andre Drummond, he definitely seems to have a lot more promise than his predecessor, Hasheem Thabeet. Brandon Knight looks like a very solid NBA point guard and the sky is the limit for him, and Rodney Stuckey is a decent-enough two-guard. What I think this comes down to is how the rest of the team plays. Their starting five is solid if they play up to the potential, but the bench needs to step up. With the backing of Lawrence Frank, I expect this team to make some pretty decent leaps this year, and sneak into the Playoffs and give the 1 seed some hell. Going bold is never a problem.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cleveland Cavaliers, unlike the Detroit Pistons, are everybody’s pick to get into the NBA Playoffs as a sleeper. I can see where they’re coming from, too. Kyrie Irving is a baller, and there’s no reason to think that he will continue his progression into one of the best point guards in the league. But, aside from Tristan Thompson, the team is lacking in the other phases. The Dion Waiters pick got slammed in the offseason, and I was a bit skeptical on it, too. Waiters is nothing more than a sixth man so to pick him so high was a bit perplexing, but I think he can still be a pretty good NBA player. Other than that though, while the future may be bright for the Cavs in the post-LeBron era, the present is still bleak.

5. Milwaukee Bucks: Unfortunately for the Bucks, I’m not really sold on them at all going into this season. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings may score a lot of points, but they might also let up a lot of points on the defensive side of the ball. There’s some talent elsewhere, with rookies John Henson and Doron Lamb, and decent veteran presence in Drew Gooden and Joel Przybilla, but the Pistons and Cavaliers just have more potential on their teams to think that the Bucks will be anywhere but last in the Central Division. I think it might be a very, very tough year in Brew City.

Southeast Division

1. Miami Heat: Is there really any doubt? The Miami Heat will be the Southeast Division champs for the third straight season and frankly, I do not think it’s going to be very close, either. They’ll win this by a mile and, God forbid the Bulls do it again, they will be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, too. LeBron James is the best player in the world and he will show why when he pulls another MVP-caliber season. Dwyane Wade seems to be a forgotten man, too, and I think after dealing with some injury problems last year, that he has a pretty good year, too. And Chris Bosh? Bosh is going to really assert himself as a Top 15-20 player in the league, too, after getting a lot of disrespect in the past. Depth may be a problem down the road, but they definitely helped their cause by adding Ray Allen in the offseason to help with their off-the-bench shooting woes. This team is damn good, and it might be their world right now that we’re living in.

2. Atlanta Hawks: The perennial 4-or-5 seed in the East might fall off a bit, but I think this is still a team more than capable of making the NBA Playoffs, at the very least. While they are losing some scoring with Joe Johnson now in Brooklyn, I think the rest of their unit is still pretty good. Al Horford gets very underrated by a lot of people and I think out of everybody, he has the biggest chance to shine this year and look like the best player on the team. Josh Smith gets a lot of slack, but he’s still good defensively and you’ll be able to account for 15-20 PPG for him a night. The guard situation was helped with the Johnson trade and they’ll have a ton of guys come in to get the scoring situation resolved without JJ. Plus, the Southeast is incredibly weak, and they’re still good enough to acquire second place.

3. Washington Wizards: There were a lot of people, myself included, that think that the Wizards can make a step this year in the right direction. I’d agree, but I think they plateaued a bit with the news that John Wall would miss significant time with a knee injury. I think Bradley Beal has a ton of potential to be a star in the league in a couple of years if everything goes right for him, and I think they beefed up their team with some solid pieces in the offseason. There are a lot of discipline issues that have to be fixed, though, and they still have some glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Not yet, D.C., but soon enough they’ll be playoff contenders.

4. Charlotte Bobcats: What? The Bobcats are not in last place in the Central Division? Yes, you are reading that right so don’t worry about adjusting your screens, folks. There is literally nowhere to go but up for the Bobcats after having the absolute worst winning percentage in league history last year (.106). They made a coaching change and added Mike Dunlap from St. John’s, and I liked the hire. He’s a good X and O’s guy and I think he can be a coach that can get his players to buy into what he’s selling, because what other choice do they really have? On the flor, though, there is some reason to be cautiously optimistic if you’re a Bobcats fan. Bismack Biyombo is a good player on defense, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has plenty of potential coming out of the University of Kentucky and there are some good veterans on this team, like Ramon Sessions as well as Ben Gordon, even if his contract is as bad as it is. They just can’t be any worse than they were last year, right?

5. Orlando Magic: Poor Magic. They were duped by Dwight Howard, their management is a joke, and what’ worst of all is that the talent they have is just incredibly porous. This might be an extremely grueling year in Orlando for Magic fans, and it might get ugly for them on a regular basis. Dwight Howard’s defensive presence is something that cannot be topped, and his offensive production will be absent as well. They didn’t have a terrible draft, but there were no players that they picked that I think can make an immediate impact. Let’s put it this way, folks. I will be pleasantly surprised if the Orlando Magic aren’t absolutely terrible in 2012-13.

Eastern Conference Playoffs:

1. Miami Heat

2. Indiana Pacers

3. Boston Celtics

4. Chicago Bulls

5. Philadelphia 76ers

6. New York Knicks

7. Atlanta Hawks

8. Detroit Pistons

(1) Miami over (8) Detroit in 4

(2) Indiana over (7) Atlanta in 6

(3) Boston over (6) New York in 5

(4) Chicago over (5) Philadelphia in 6

(1) Miami over (4) Chicago in 7

(2) Indiana over (3) Boston in 6

***

Western Conference

Northwest Division

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: I will say beforehand, that I thought better of the OKC Thunder before they made the James Harden trade. While it might help in the long-run for this team, for the short-run, I see this being a bit of a detractor. Even though Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin will bring some scoring and potential to this team, James Harden brought a lot to the table. Nonetheless this team should still be pretty solid, with the likes of Russell Westbrook, reigning scoring champion Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka. Don’t forget that Eric Maynor is back, after missing most of the season so he can definitely be a good ballhandler when Westbrook is off the floor.

2. Denver Nuggets: Here’s a team that is incredibly intriguing. Even though as we’ll find out, I don’t think that they will make it past the first round, they definitely have the talent to get to the Western Conference Finals if everything goes their way. They added Andre Iguodala in the offseason and gave up relatively nothing to do it, and JaVale McGee, after looking incredibly stupid in Washington, looked like a monster last year in the Playoffs, albeit a short time. Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried round out this incredibly talented lineup and this team is a dangerous sleeper in the conference. Watch out for Denver, depending on the seed they get.

3. Utah Jazz: Here is another team that I think can continue off the success that they had last year. Although they got swept by the Spurs, this team had some success in the regular season and I think that they have a lot of guys who can steadily improve. Especially Gordon Hayward, who I have second in the MIP race behind… well, you’ll find that out later. If you’re a Jazz fan, and I know one of them, there is a lot to be hopeful for when it comes to this team. I’m liking the Jazz to be in the position that they were in last year, but look impressive at times against the league’s best. A team on the rise, as they say.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Another team that I think can be successful are these guys, the Minnesota Timberwolves. I think the thing that’s needed most for them is for Kevin Love to get back and for them to play at around the .500 level until he’s gone. They have the talent and the coaching with Rick Adelman to do it I think. Ricky Rubio is coming off of knee surgery and if he plays as well as he did before that injury, then I think the Timberwolves can strongly contend for the Northwest Division. I definitely sense a playoff berth for them, in an absolutely loaded division.

5. Portland Trail Blazers: The Trail Blazers are an extremely weird team. While they have great talent in LaMarcus Aldridge, and they also have sensational rookie Damian Lillard. Other than that though, there seem to be some deficiencies with this team. They are definitely in a rebuilding process and also have a rookie at center with Meyers Leonard. Anything above 30 wins for this team, at least in my opinion, should be an extremely successful. The future is bright for this team assuming they turn themselves in the right direction but for now, it’ll be a tough year for the Blazers up in the Northwest, in my opinion.

Pacific Division

1. Los Angeles Lakers: The best starting five in the league resides in Los Angeles, California. The new-look Lakers debut tonight against the Dallas Mavericks and they are fully ready to go with the news that Kobe Bryant will be a game-time decision. Chances are, he’ll play that game, and he’ll continue to shine with his new buddies, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. This team has championship aspirations and with their depth, it might not be far off from happening. Dwight and Pau is a fearsome combo in the paint, Kobe is Kobe, Nash will make them all look great and despite his antics, Metta World Peace can definitely bring some defensive prowess on the wings. I like this Lakers team, and I really like them a lot.

2. Los Angeles Clippers: Yeah, they’re still the Clippers. Yeah, Vinny Del Negro is still their coach. But the fact of the matter is the do have a lot of talent and probably got better in the offseason, too. Grant Hill, Jamal Crawford, and especially Lamar Odom will provide this team with a lot of depth, veteran presence and scoring and defense. Chris Paul is in a contract year and I think he’s going to ball this season and again be a MVP candidate, and Blake Griffin should steadily improve from last year, too. Look out for Eric Bledsoe when Paul isn’t on the floor, and that guy named Chauncey Billups too who you might have forgotten.

3. Golden State Warriors: Bit of a surprise here, but the Golden State Warriors had too tremendous of an offseason for me to ignore. Carl Landry, Jarrett Jack, Festus Ezeli, Draymond Green, Brandon Rush, and Harrison Barnes are all new additions whether they came from the draft or free agency. They’re getting Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut healthy, and there are still some solid players on the team besides these guys. I think that they are a under-the-radar team that can play a lot of spoilers, wreak some havoc and who knows? Maybe they can slip into the playoffs. I don’t think they will because of the crowded Northwest, but they’ll be in contention for a final spot until the last week of the season, methinks.

4. Sacramento Kings: There is a lot of young, budding talent on this Kings team. From Isaiah Thomas to DeMarcus Cousins, and from Tyreke Evans to Thomas Robinson, the starters for the Kings can and probably will make some noise this year. I look at them as around a 35-win club if some things swing their way, but if discipline becomes a problem they could totally plummet. They definitely need to create a lot of chemistry on here and that is harder than it may look to people on the outside. Kings fans can be happy that the team is in Sacramento (for now) and that there are some talented players on the team, but other than that, not much to look forward to.

5. Phoenix Suns: The Suns do have some nice pieces. Goran Dragic, Marcin Gortat, Wes Johnson, Michael Beasley and Markieff Morris have all been pretty solid for the most part in their careers, with some exceptions. However the problem I have with Phoenix is from a playmaking aspect. Steve Nash’s impact on the team cannot be stated enough and without him, they’re left without a floor general who can really command a game and the team. Dragic has been solid in his short-term career, but he obviously is no Steve Nash, and I don’t think he has the potential to be one either. Kendall Marshall is a nice player and I do think that he has potential to be a solid, not spectacular point guard in the league but it’s going to take some time with him, obviously. I just can’t see this team contending for a playoff spot, let alone the division this season, as the Post Steve Nash Era will begin with a lot of speed bumps and potholes.

Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs: Yes, you weren’t expecting anyone different were you? I’ll give you Memphis, even though a step back for them wouldn’t shock me. But the San Antonio Spurs, after they looked damn near unbeatable before being shooed away by the Oklahoma City Thunder last year in the Western Conference Finals, will win the Southwest Division (again) and contend for the top spot in the Western Conference (again). This team has so much talent from top to bottom and I think a player to lookout for on the Spurs is second-year man Kawhi Leonard. He had a pretty good rookie season and I think with more time on the floor, I sense that he’ll take another step into developing into a really good wing player. Duncan will be Duncan, Tony Parker will probably have another pretty damn good season, and the Spurs will lull teams into sleep with their “boring style of basketball” and run a tour de force in the West, again.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: While I think Memphis will take a bit of a step back with most of the Northwest being very good, I think that Memphis is about as dangerous as a team can get inside of the playoffs as long as they get there. They have enough length with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, good scoring from Randolph as well as swingman Rudy Gay, and they also have great perimeter defense from Tony Allen. Since O.J. Mayo is gone, I think that the opportunities are there for some bench guys like Josh Selby and Jerryd Bayless to fill the void left by O.J. If the Grizzlies get to the playoffs, I think there is plenty of potential to make some incredible noise.

3. Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki is going to be out for an extended amount of time and that’s bad news for a team that was partially dismantled in the offseason. Eddy Curry might wind up being their starting center and when it gets to that point, you’re in a world of hurt. I don’t have high hopes for the 2011 NBA Champions unfortunately, and I see them just missing the playoffs. Even though they have a lot of veterans on the team now, what with Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and Chris Kaman, it to me doesn’t seem like enough to contend in the Western Conference. If things get worse for them next season, at least they have a loaded draft class to look forward to.

4. Houston Rockets: The new look Houston Rockets made a ton of noise in the offseason, as recently as when they acquired James Harden, and then earlier when they signed Jeremy Lin and also, on a lesser note, Omer Asik. Do I think that that’s enough for them to take the next step? No, unfortunately not. They lost way too much in Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic. They have thirteen players on the roster that have NBA experience of three years or less. This is a team that I think is going to be picking in the lottery for sure next offseason. Not to mention the whole thing about Lin and Harden giving up an absurd amount of points.

5. New Orleans Hornets: Ah, the mighty Hornets are no longer under the control of David Stern and his cronies, and now have prized possession Anthony Davis to their team. Not only is he going to be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year, I think he can definitely be a very good player at this level. Marcus Camby is the measuring stick and if he turns out like him, he can definitely be great. Nonetheless, the Hornets do have him, Austin Rivers, shot chucker extraordinaire, and also Eric Gordon on the floor for most of the night so scoring probably won’t be a problem. It’s just about everything else that might be. This team isn’t that much better than how bad they were last year, but there’s nowhere to go but up from here, right?

Western Conference Playoffs:

1. Los Angeles Lakers

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

4. Denver Nuggets

5. Los Angeles Clippers

6. Memphis Grizzlies

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

8. Utah Jazz

(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (8) Utah Jazz in 5

(2) San Antonio Spurs over (7) Minnesota Timberwolves in 6

(6) Memphis Grizzlies over (3) in Oklahoma City Thunder 6

(5) Los Angeles Clippers over (4) Denver Nuggets in 6

(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (5) Los Angeles Clippers in 7

(2) San Antonio Spurs over (6) Memphis Grizzlies in 6

***

Conference Finals & NBA Finals

Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Miami Heat over (2) Indiana Pacers in 6

Western Conference Finals

(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (2) San Antonio Spurs in 5

NBA Finals

(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (1) Miami Heat in 6

NBA Finals MVP: Kobe Bryant

***

NBA MVP: LeBron James

Depending on how you look at it, unfortunately the MVP race is pretty barren. It’s LeBron James, and then there’s everyone else. I don’t doubt that the likes of Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, or Kevin Durant can join the mix. However, LeBron is just so much better than everyone else at this point that it’s really not even fair. The thing with him James is that now that he’s got his championship, he does not have that pressure anymore to get it. Now he can play other-worldly basketball like we have come to expect from him over the years, and he might have some dastardly good numbers this year. It seems like the safe bet, and I’m going to go with it.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Luol Deng

This may come as a surprise with the likes of Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka in the league, but I really like Luol Deng’s chances. Yes, he is nursing an injury right now as the season approaches, but there are few wing-players in the league not named LeBron James that can play as good defensively as Deng can. I’ve taken the opportunity to watch a lot of Bulls games after coming out to the Midwest, and he’s really blown me away sometime. With Derrick Rose out for an extended amount of time, Deng has the best chance to step up as a leader on both sides of the ball. Not to mention he is a perfect fit in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system. He may not have the blocks, the steals, the gaudy numbers in general, but I like Deng’s chances as a real “dark horse” to break out and be a big contributor on this Chicago Bulls team.

NBA Rookie of the Year: Damian Lillard

When it comes to the ROTY race, I see two strong contenders. There’s Anthony Davis down in New Orleans, and then there’s Damian Lillard from Weber State, who now resides in Portland. When it comes down to it, I like Lillard’s chances, and here’s why: five of the last six NBA Rookies of the Year have been guards, with three of them (Paul, Rose, Irving) being point guards. Secondly, with LaMarcus Aldridge down in the post, Lillard can utilize the pick-and-roll that he picked up while in college and destroy teams in the paint with it. There’s also no doubt in my mind that the kid can score, too. Last year in college, Lillard averaged 24.5 points per game and was Weber State’s second best scorer in the team’s history (1,934 points), and all of that was while he missed a year of eligibility. Watch out for this guy, folks.

NBA Most Improved Player: Paul George

There’re a lot of decent candidates here. From Gordon Hayward, to Stephen Curry, and even the likes of Evan Turner, a lot of players have the potential to improve from subpar seasons last year. I’m going to go with Indiana Pacer Paul George though, and I’ll tell you why. Last year, after a pretty decent rookie campaign where he mainly came off the bench, George played in all 66 games, at roughly 30 minutes a night and picked up 12.1 PPG along with 5.6 RPG, and 2.4 APG. For shooting at 44% from the field, those are pretty decent numbers, and now as Indiana’s core looks to improve upon their season last year, I think that he will get a larger role and get a lot of opportunities to score. The 22-year old from Fresno State has a lot of potential in him, and is a pretty darn good dunker too. Nonetheless, with all of that useless stuff aside, I like his potential and his game and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him near the 18-19 PPG and start hitting his peak. I say he edges out Gordon Hayward, just slightly, and takes home this hardware.

NBA Coach of the Year: Lawrence Frank

As we already know, I have the Detroit Pistons sliding themselves into the lower-tier of the NBA Playoffs. So now with that said, who else would be the NBA’s Coach of the Year? I doubt any of the coaches from the power teams will win this award, and his only competition might be Avery Johnson, even though I’m not a huge believer in the Brooklyn Nets. I see Rick Adelman and perhaps Mark Jackson if things go well for the Golden State Warriors. But without a doubt, I think Frank will win NBA Coach of the Year for helping to guide this team to the playoffs. I’ve always been a fan of Frank going back to when he was the coach of the Nets, and he’ll stake his claim once more with a good, up and coming group of guys around him and coach them up really, really well.