2013 NCAA Tournament 2nd Round Preview - Midwest Region

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The 2013 NCAA Tournament is set to tip off tomorrow night with the First Four. The action really heats up on Thursday with the start of the Round of 64, and with that in mind, we are going to preview each of the regions on the blog, to try and get some activity going and to predict what we're going to see in the Big Dance. So with that in mind, here we have the predictions for the 2nd round action in the Midwest Region. Indianapolis will be the site for the Regional Semifinals and Regional Finals, but we have to see how we get there first.

Guest spotting here is friend of the blog, Will Warren, a student at the University of Tennessee.

(1) Louisville vs. (16) North Carolina A&T/Liberty

There’s little reason for me to waste much time writing about this game, but root for Liberty in the First Four, for no other reason than they shoot threes well and they’d still be 16-20 even with a win. John Caleb Sanders (14.2 ppg) and Davon Marshall (43.3% 3PT) give Liberty a fairly formidable backcourt that could keep it close against the Cardinals for a little while with a hot start. North Carolina A&T does nothing well offensively.

Prediction: Louisville 80, play-in team 49

(8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri

For the better part of two months I’ve been hoping Missouri gets an 8-9 game and it came true. There is no team in the nation (although Florida presents a strong case) worse at closing out a close game than Missouri. The Tigers finished 3-6 (1-5 since a 66-64 defeat of Bucknell in January) in games decided by 3 points or less. Missouri did not win a true road game until mid-February against a 10-22 Mississippi State squad. Colorado State brings a fantastic offense to the table (#7 KenPom, #2 ORB%, #16 offensive turnovers) but faltered defensively late in the season, giving up 74 or more points in six of their final seven games. The Rams are spectacular on the boards (#2 offensively, #1 defensively), thanks to Colton Iverson (14.7 ppg, 9.8 rpg), the senior leader of an all-senior starting five. Neither team plays defense well (in second halves, both have been an absolute mess as of late). Turnovers will be the key here, as the Rams are better at holding on the ball.

Prediction: Colorado State 78, Missouri 76

(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon

On one hand, you feel terrible for an Oregon team who was one of the nation’s most underrated squads all season long – a team who had their best season since their Elite Eight run in 2007, rewarded with a hilariously low seed for a team that deserved at least an 8. On the other, you feel bad for Oklahoma State too – their best season since Eddie Sutton’s coaching days, rewarded with far and away the toughest 12 seed opponent possible. Oregon brings a lot to the table – a solid frontcourt, a backcourt with a strong defensive edge, and Dana Altman in maybe the best coaching job of his career. Oregon likes to run (69 possessions per game) and so does Oklahoma State (68), but neither is outstanding offensively and both rely on strong defensive performances to win games. The comeback of Dominic Artis at PG for Oregon (21-4 with, 5-4 without) puts them over the top for me.

Prediction: Oregon 67, Oklahoma State 65

(4) Saint Louis vs. (13) New Mexico State

Here’s another potential grind-it-out game, and the game that was personally the hardest for me to pick in this region. I absolutely love watching Saint Louis play – the passion ignited after Rick Majerus’ passing and the way they play defense is way too much fun to pass up. However, the Billikens have a rough draw. This edition of New Mexico State is unknown to most of the country, but you’ll know them as soon as the game starts thanks to one player: 7’5” Indo-Canadian center, Sim Bhullar. Bhullar is only able to play 24 minutes per game (shades of former UNC-Asheville showman, 7’9” Kenny George), but this includes the first nine games of the year in which Bhullar did not start. In his last seven games, Bhullar has driven NMSU to a 6-1 record, averaging 33.6 minutes per game, 10.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 3.6 blocks per game (Bhullar has 4 blocks or more in 8 of NMSU’s last 16 games). All of a sudden, Saint Louis, who has a fairly effective frontcourt and rebounds well defensively, could be completely outmatched. Worse, Saint Louis, who has struggled at times with putting opponents on the line too much, now faces a team that ranks third nationally in terms of free throw attempts per game. New Mexico State may be on its way to the Round of 32 in a shocker.

Prediction: New Mexico State 61, Saint Louis 59

(6) Memphis vs. (11) St. Mary’s/Middle Tennessee

This is the lone game in the field for me that depends almost entirely on the winner of the First Four game. I love Middle Tennessee for two reasons: they’re my home school (I live 45 minutes from Murfreesboro) and they play outstanding defense, ranking 20^th in the nation in KenPom’s ratings. However, I like St. Mary’s to top them in a close one in Dayton, also for two reasons: despite being ridiculously deep (42.0% bench minutes, 12^th in nation), MTSU has no one player they can point to in a late-game situation, whereas St. Mary’s has one of the nation’s best in Matthew Dellavedova (15.8 ppg, 6.4 apg, 87.7 FT%). Also, St. Mary’s can get out of a hole very quickly, thanks to taking and making lots of threes (41^st nationally in 3PT%, 55^th in three-point attempts). If the Gaels escape the Blue Raiders, they draw a favorable matchup with the Memphis Tigers. It’s going to take at least one win to truly win over Memphis fans for Josh Pastner, who has consistently underperformed on the big stage in his time there. Memphis shoots threes well (29^th nationally in 3PT%), but rarely takes them (291^st in three-point attempts) – not a good recipe for a late-game deficit. Another red flag: Memphis did not beat a single team in this year’s NCAA Tournament (0-3 vs. VCU, Minnesota, Louisville). The biggest issue for me is this: I think Memphis may be the only 6 seed in the field with deep-run potential (Sweet 16 or further), but Josh Pastner has to prove himself first.

Prediction: St. Mary’s 68, Memphis 64; Memphis 64, Middle Tennessee 62

(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Valparaiso

This is an interesting Midwest hoops matchup in Auburn Hills – a consistently great Big Ten squad taking on a revitalized program from Indiana. While I still don’t think Valpo was the best team from their conference (if Ray McCallum Jr.’s dad was an actual coach and not just a dead body in disguise, Detroit would have won the Horizon running away), they present a tough test for the Spartans. Ryan Broekhoff is the rare power forward who is the best three-point shooter on his team (43.2% from deep) and Kevin Van Wijk is an incredibly efficient center (65.3% 2PT). However, Valpo does few things well on the defensive end, being most ineffective against good backcourts (84 points allowed to Detroit, 80 vs. Youngstown State). Valpo also only defeated one team in the Top 100 – the previously mentioned Detroit Titans, in a game where they allowed 88 points. I love Horizon hoops and Valparaiso’s team, but they simply don’t have much of a chance in this one.

Prediction: Michigan State 76, Valparaiso 60

(7) Creighton vs. (10) Cincinnati

A tale of two halves for both teams: Creighton started out the season white-hot from everywhere on the court, culminating in a 17-1 start and AP Top 10 ranking. Cincinnati started 12-0 with four Top 100 wins (Creighton had 8 in their 17-1 start, according to KenPom). Both had rough finishes – Creighton nosedived in late January and early February, nearly falling to bubble status with a 3-5 stretch, while Cincinnati finished 10-11 after their 12-0 start. The difference? At the end of the season, Creighton began to look like Good Creighton again, finishing the season with five straight wins, including two over fellow MVC power Wichita State. Creighton played some of their best defense of the year in wins over Drake and Indiana State and looked very solid defensively until a late spurt by Wichita in the MVC Title Game. Cincinnati never really recovered from their burnout – they haven’t had a winning streak of more than one game in nearly two months and they shoot the ball about as well as your average 30 year old male at the local recreation center. It’ll be closer than I think, probably, but I expect Creighton to make it to the Round of 32. Insert Doug McDermott is awesome comment here.

Prediction: Creighton 67, Cincinnati 62

(2) Duke vs. (15) Albany

As much as most of the country wants to see a repeat of Duke’s first round loss to Lehigh as a 2 seed in 2012, I just don’t think it’ll happen again. Albany brings no one to the table anywhere near C.J. McCollum’s skill level, they don’t hold on to the ball (249^th in the nation in turnovers), and they aren’t quite able to exploit Duke’s inability to rebound efficiently (225^th in nation in rebounding margin). However, I do think Duke’s rebounding issues and struggles to defend effectively inside will hurt them down the hurt – perhaps even in a game against Creighton in the Round of 32.

Prediction: Duke 78, Albany 58