2013 NCAA Tournament 2nd Round Preview - South Region

Photo by Rich Sugg

The 2013 NCAA Tournament is set to tip off tonight with the First Four. The action really heats up on Thursday with the start of the Round of 64, and with that in mind, we are going to preview each of the regions on the blog, to try and get some activity going and to predict what we're going to see in the Big Dance. So with that in mind, here we have the predictions for the 2nd round action in the South Region. The final destination in this region is Jerry World in Arlington, Texas.

Guest spotting here once again is friend of the blog, Will Warren, a student at the University of Tennessee.

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Western Kentucky

For the second straight year, the Random Championship Generator that is the Sun Belt’s conference tournament has churned out Western Kentucky, who finished 6^th out of 11 teams in the regular season. However, once again, the Hilltoppers got hot at the right time and here they are, facing a Kansas team that’s hot at the right time as well. Unfortunately for the Hilltoppers, nothing here suggests they’ve got much of a shot. Everything the Hilltoppers do is either average or below average, save for being a surprisingly good offensive rebounding team (#1 in the Sun Belt, #77 overall). Luckily for WKU, four of five starters and the majority of their bench will return next year – a good sign for the return of the Western Kentucky basketball of my youth.

Prediction: Kansas 75, Western Kentucky 48

(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Villanova

A short rant on some of my anti-committee stances: the selection committee has a near-scary obsession with forcing North Carolina and Kansas to play each other or potentially play each other almost every year. We get it – Roy Williams left Kansas for North Carolina. This is apparently still important despite the fact Kansas has won a national championship since then. That happened over a decade ago. Get over it. Moving on to the actual first round game UNC is involved in, they’ll be playing Big East representative Villanova, who sputtered along for the first two months of the season before having perhaps the best week of any team this year – back-to-back wins over Louisville and Syracuse, pushing them from tournament afterthought to suddenly in the mix. After two losses following, Nova finished 7-4 in their last 11. Villanova does very little well consistently on offense, which is built almost entirely around getting to the free throw line, which the Wildcats rank #1 in America at. However, they’ll be playing a team that ranks #15 in fewest fouls committed per game. Something has to budge, and I think it’ll be a Villanova team that’s struggled heavily with turning the ball over and with defending the three.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Villanova 71

(5) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (12) Akron

For most of the year, I’ve been pushing VCU as a good team to take deep in your bracket, just because they match up very well with past mid-major teams that have made deep runs – the Rams force a ton of turnovers (#1 in America), shoot the three well, and rebound well offensively. However, the Rams have some glaring holes upon further inspection: they foul a lot (#278 nationally in fouls per game), they don’t really defend any kind of shot well (#232 defensive effective FG%), and they’re poor at protecting their own basket (#293 in defensive rebounding). Luckily for VCU, their first round opponent won’t exploit too many of these flaws immediately. Akron does several things well (#20 in offensive rebounding, #17 in defensive effective FG%, 52.2 2PT%) and has an outstanding center in seven-footer Zeke Marshall (13 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.7 blocks per game), but with the absence of recently-suspended point guard Alex Abreu, may not offer much in the way of a backcourt – their MAC title win over Ohio was built heavily upon the Bobcats being completely unable to hit any kind of shot (DJ Cooper finished with his first game in over three years in which he did not hit a field goal). I think VCU escapes here, but they match up poorly with potential second-round opponent Michigan.

Prediction: VCU 70, Akron 64

(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Dakota State

If they’re like me, Michigan fans all across the nation have to be saying “not again.” For the second straight year, Michigan draws a plucky mid-major as a 4 seed and a team that can shoot their way to any victory. The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State (seriously, what a name!) feature one of the nation’s best players in Nate Wolters, who should be able to get his chance on the big stage in the NBA. Wolters, who averages nearly 23 points per game, can single-handedly take his team over the top, as demonstrated in a December win over New Mexico in which Wolters scored 28 points and garnered 7 assists and 5 rebounds. As one might expect, South Dakota State can have trouble creating other options. In three of the four games this season in which Wolters scored over thirty points, the Jackrabbits lost – the only win was Wolters’ insane 53-point performance against IPFW, and the Jacks still needed a late run to win that game by six. Michigan offers up its own outstanding guard in Trey Burke, the likely National Player of the Year. Burke has been the heart and soul of a Michigan team that has struggled with leadership issues and inconsistency over the final month of the season. In fact, the only constant has been Burke – the lone player in the nation to score 15 points or more in every conference game. When Michigan’s on (as their former WE ON shirts suggest), they’re nearly impossible to stop – ask Purdue, who watched as Burke and Michigan scored 43 points in the final 12 minutes in a comeback win just two weeks ago. While the Jacks offer up a great challenge, I think Michigan has enough depth and focus to at least make it to the Round of 32.

Prediction: Michigan 75, South Dakota State 66

(6) UCLA vs. (11) Minnesota

A game that already looks intense on paper could become incredibly important for both programs – rumors are beginning to swirl that the losing head coach of this game could see his exit from their respective university. Tubby Smith finally has some semblance of momentum going at Minnesota, but the Gophers have looked completely useless at times after a 15-1 start (5-11 finish). While there are wins against Indiana and Wisconsin sandwiched into that stretch, there are many embarrassing losses: Northwestern, Nebraska, a 16 point loss to sub-.500 Purdue, a blown lead and a loss to Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney, etc. In that aspect, this game is massive for Minnesota. However, this means just as much to UCLA. After starting his career with three Final Four runs in his first five years with the Bruins, UCLA has missed the tourney two of the last four seasons and has looked nothing like the 2006-2008 teams. While the Bruins showed flashes of that this season (a 15-3 start and a regular season Pac-12 title), they still don’t look quite the same. Even worse, the Bruins lost star freshman Jordan Adams with less than five seconds to go in a Pac-12 Tournament semifinal against Arizona. Adams had become the team’s most consistent offensive player, and without him, UCLA’s chances look bleak. The Bruins will be forced to use a likely six-man rotation with a very young and inexperienced squad (Larry Drew is the only player in the rotation with tourney experience). However, UCLA did end the season far better than Minnesota, Adams or no Adams. I’ve got to go with the Bruins in a tight one.

Prediction: UCLA 61, Minnesota 60

(3) Florida vs. (14) Northwestern State

On Sunday I remember Tweeting something along the lines of this about Florida: they’ll either be the team that gets shocked in a close game by a mid-major or the team that makes a surprising Final Four run. Had the Gators drawn Davidson or the like, I’d be more concerned about their upset potential. However, Florida wins out on this draw. While Northwestern State can score and score and score, to the tune of 81 points per game, they also allow and allow and allow – 71 points per game. The Demons played nine games of 80 possessions or more this year, but expect Florida to mostly control the pace. Northwestern State simply cannot make threes; no player on the team averages more than 1.6 per game and no player averages higher than 36.5% on his three-point attempts. While depth is no concern for the Demons (43.1% bench minutes, 6^th in the nation), that simply doesn’t matter if you can’t hit shots. Florida takes this one with ease.

Prediction: Florida 83, Northwestern State 62

(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Oklahoma

These are getting a little long-winded, so I’ll keep this one simple: San Diego State’s got Steve Fisher, a great defense, and holds onto the ball well (64^th nationally in turnover percentage out of 347 teams); Oklahoma has Romero Osby (ranked nationally in 10 of 13 main statistical categories on KenPom), no consistent three-point threat, and holds onto the ball well (43^rd in turnover percentage). I’m preordained to love a guy like Steve Fisher, so here goes nothing: Aztecs.

Prediction: San Diego State 62, Oklahoma 56

(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast

I’m not going to pretend like I know much of anything about Florida Gulf Coast, so here’s what I do know: they’re in Fort Myers, Florida, which, meh, whatever. The university has only existed for 22 years and this is their first NCAA Tournament appearance ever. They also present an interesting case for Georgetown: a team that forces their share of turnovers, shoots the ball well, and likes to run (69 possessions per game). They’ve already beaten Miami (FL) this season and stuck with Iowa State for the majority of their game. While I don’t think they pull off the massive upset, they’ll keep it fairly close for a while.

Prediction: Georgetown 66, FGCU 53